Nic: Serbia is exploiting crisis to buy time

Deutsche Welle: The situation in Kosovo is tense. Serbs have emerged from institutions in northern Kosovo. What can we expect?

Milan Nic: I think many things were on a good track in terms of normalisation, or at least improving relations between Serbia and Kosovo in recent months. So there was the Berlin Process that reached the first agreements. So things were going well for Kosovo. And in the background was Berlin and Paris's diplomatic initiative to achieve great progress between Serbia and Kosovo. And in the midst of that were small and symbolic issues to which Albin Kurti took a principled stand. In August the Americans helped him with IDs. It is quite interesting since the mini-crissary of the time resulted in an unwritten agreement that Serbia recognizes Kosovo's IDs at the end of the year. Recognition recognition was then part of the International Regional Common Market Agreements of the Berlin Process, and after it is ratified, it will become binding. So things were moving in the right direction, for Kosovo's real integration into the region, without being boycotted by Serbia.

Now I think that Vuciqi will exploit any issue that enables him to buy out time to avoid a general agreement with Kosovo. So, the withdrawal of Serbs from Kosovo institutions in the north has nothing to do with these days. Vuchy has now decided to turn every small matter into a major one. So this is not a crisis that will be overcome in one day. I think the concession will take time and diplomatic capacities, which have been reserved to reach a major compromise.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke at the press conference at the conclusion of the Berlin Summit for “patience and many attempts to reach a compromise. Was that why?

Yeah. But look, Brussels and Washington urged Kurt to postpone implementing the decision on the plates, because the moment was inadequate. And what did Pristina do? He pushed the seizures to April, but now he's distributing the warnings, and later he'll start with fines. So, legally, the process is called beginning, and therefore he offered Belgrade a cause for telling Serbs to withdraw from the institutions. I think Pristina didn't think it well when it did, because every crisis, however small, is not in its interest. Belgrade is exploiting this: I don't say that the crisis is artificial, but he is now using it to question everything and to say that Serbs in Kosovo will return to its institutions only if they receive guarantees for association. So, for a symbolic thing, the situation has changed within days.

The region is often talked about as many destabilizing elements come from Russia. Do you think Russia will have any effect on this crisis?

Russia is not behind this movement. Only Belgrade is behind this movement. This is about positioning for bigger issues than just license plates. I don't think the crisis is artificial because the plates are important because they have to do with everyday life. So I just don't understand, why Kurt thought, if the process began, even the ladder, Serbs wouldn't take such a step, passing through the full crisis. It is not the problem with tensions, but Serbs are now abolishing the 2013 Brussels Agreement themselves. Now they mean, we want to discuss everything. So, instead of discussing moving forward, the discussion will now be how to get back to zero.

That is because Kurti and Vetevendosje do not want to accept this part of the Brussels Agreements that the Kosovo government signed before them. The plan is to establish the Association of Serb majority municipalities, as autonomy. The Negotiation then made in 2013 was that in exchange for recognising Kosovo institutions and jurisdiction on Kosovo's territory, Kosovo Serbs have autonomy. Now Kurt doesn't want to do that.

Kurti's argument has been because they do not want to create a second Republika Srpska in Kosovo

This is the predominate interpretation in Kosovo. The association was very vaguely defined. The biggest problem of dialogue has been how to define association, which was the essence of Serbia's agreement. But Kurt doesn't even want to talk about it. And that was his weak spot compared to Serbia. Serbia had far more weaknesses and was thrown against the wall by the EU.

But said briefly: The withdrawal of Kosovo Serbs in the north from all Kosovo institutions is a new situation. And it's very serious, because I don't see them coming back next week or that it's easy to call them back. So now we have a serious political crisis within Kosovo, due to which we have lost several weeks or months. And this will completely undermine the Franco-German initiative for a full normalisation agreement.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has said he has not rejected the Franco-German plan. But he has not even said that he fully supports him, as Rama and von der Leyeen did. Do you think Kurt wants the Franco-German plan?

I can only say: I remember three years ago when Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, when it came to taxes. And the West found it very difficult to change their attitude. It was also the April 2019 summit in Berlin, where Macron and Merkel said that if we invite all these leaders, we waste our time and our capacities to move forward, and they're still not constructive, then we'll give up. Now a window has been opened for the entire region, but especially for Kosovo, to become part of it at an equal level with Serbia through the Berlin Process through the EU. They're gonna leave this window closed.

So you think this is a last chance for the region?

Not last. But I think it's not a good situation for Kosovo. Kosovo needs any diplomatic agreement, which advances, moves forward. While Serbia wants to gain time, and according to this formula, Kurt is offering it the new crisis at “a silver tray”.

Milan Nic is an expert in Southeast Europe at the Berlin-based German Foreign Policy Council.