VOA analysis: Greece-Turkey tensions, danger of conflict between countries

The Turkish military is conducting its annual military exercises not far from the neighbouring Greek islands.

Greece continues to modernise the military, closing the gap with its Turkish rival, while bilateral tensions are rising due to a number of territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean.

“Current Greek-Turkish relations at the official level are extremely tense, due to the change of balance in the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey's domestic policy, which sees a certain degree of interest to demonstrate a unilateral nationalist foreign policy”, says analyst Seemem Aydin-Duzgut from Sabanci University.

Addressing supporters at a recent rally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkish forces could enter the Greek islands one night, which Ankara has said should demilitarise.

Meanwhile, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias compared Turkey to Russia during a recent visit to Ukraine.

The increasingly tense comments from both sides follow flights of fighter aircraft from both countries, which are becoming a regular phenomenon.

“If Turkish planes, ships, or Turkish tanks on the border are attacked, Turkey will have to retaliate. But this revenge could escalate, and it could spur the start of a war that you cannot complete”, says Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Cassin.

But tensions and threats between two NATO members are not new developments.

The two sides are maintaining contacts and recently Turkish Defence Minister Hulus Akar invited Greek counterpart Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos to visit Turkey.

Observers say the two countries are capable of managing tensions.

There have been accidents, wrong steps, which, thankfully, have not resulted in a broader confrontation. Both sides have mechanisms and knowledge to deal with accidents. If there is no political will from one, or another side to scale the issue to the level of war, I don't see any possibility for a” accident, says analyst Serhat Guvenc of Kadir Has University.

But elections are expected to complicate the situation further, because the two leaders are facing difficult challenges related to next year's elections.

The “is very significant, that there will be elections in both Turkey and Greece next year. They are approaching and the two leaders are almost preparing the public for a possible nationalist cause, or a confrontation, even a” confrontation, says analyst Asli Aydinastasbas from the Brookings Institute.

Turkey and Greece have decades of experience in managing bilateral tensions. But that will be put to the test, as both countries move towards the elections. / VOA/