Expanding NATO, Turkey, Hungary pending agreement

Something like that has been missing from Hungary and Turkey. But with the new Government now in Sweden and after elections in Finland and Turkey, early next year, diplomats are almost convinced that the two Nordic countries will be new NATO members by the end of 2022 or early 2023.

The biggest obstacle in the whole process concerns Ankara.

Following Helsinki and Stockholm's decision to apply for NATO membership, once in May of this year because of Russia's war in Ukraine, expectations have been that the membership process could be completed at record speeds, so that both countries could be members at the end of summer or early autumn.

But Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan has had other ideas. He has recently approved NATO's invitation to Finland and Sweden to join the alliance at the summit in Madrid, which was held at the end of June, only after the signing of a trilateral memorandum with Helsinki and Stockholm in the major organising margins in the Spanish capital. While most NATO countries have rushed over the summer months to ratify protocols for membership, Turkey has not been late.

She has observed whether Finland and Sweden have fulfilled the pledges they have made in the memorandum. The main focus has been mainly in Sweden ʹthe country of about 100,000 Kurdish-borns who have faced an election process that has won the right-wing extreme. The former Swedish government has been quick to fulfill several vows. A 2019 arms embargo on Ankara has been lifted quickly and there has been movement blocking the financing of Kurdish groups in Syria.

But these have been easy progress.

The real question is how the Swedish government will deal with the crackdown on the Kurdistan People's Party (PKK) and how it will extradite the persons Turkey considers “terrorists”.

Both Finland and Sweden consider it The PKK as a terrorist organisation, but in the memorandum they have pledged “to prevent PKK activities and all terrorist organisations and their extensions, as well as the activities of individuals and groups who are inspired or linked to these terrorist organisations”.

Clearly, Stockholm will have to be more alert against the group whose flags and emblems are not unusual in many Swedish cities.

These extraditions are expected to be a test for the new Swedish government.

So far, extradition requirements have been approved for two people, but it is not known how many others Ankara has made. The numbers that circulate through the media go between 18 and 73, but the officials with whom Radio Free Europe has spoken believe Turkey is most interested in the willingness of Swedes to deal with these requirements and not put them in the drawer immediately.

Sweden's readiness may have increased with Wolf Cristersson's entry into the prime minister's office. His party, as well as two coalition partners, are all pros - NATO, something that did not exist in the past government composition.

It may be easier to face extraditions, given the fact that the elections have ended that even Swedish Kurds traditionally have not been a very important basis for his vote.

Furthermore, the seating in Parliament has not won even Iran-born Amineh Kakabawh, who in the past government has been an independent deputy. Christersson has held Oscar Stenström in the position of chief negotiator for implementation of the memorandum a person believed to enjoy respect in Ankara.

When the Swedish prime minister has visited NATO headquarters in Brussels shortly after the start of the mandate, he has said Stockholm is “very devoted to an agreement between Sweden, Finland and Turkey, and we are doing everything we can to fulfil all of the” obligations, adding that the <x2-war fight against terrorism is of crucial importance to this” agreement.

He has also said in Brussels that he is willing to go to Ankara “as soon as he can”.

Ergodan said the meeting would happen, but without setting a precise date.

Although not everything is expected to be resolved soon, a large window of opportunity continues to be open.

Erdogan will be tested in presidential elections held in June next year, until Finnishs go to the polls early in April.

Therefore, all sides hope that this topic will be closed before the cited processes begin.

Later, the focus returns to Hungary and the reasons why this state's Parliament has not yet ratified the protocols.

There have been signs by Hungarian officials that this issue will be voted in late November and that the entire process will be finalised before Christmas Day. The official reason is that the Government is busy drafting and voting new legislation to secure the European Union's blocked funds worth 7.5 billion euros.

But there are people who believe that reason for delay. In the corridors of Brussels, there are speculation that Budapest is exploiting the delay to pressure Stockholm and Helsinki to approve the allocation of funds for Hungary. There are rumours that stalling by Hungarians could be a signal to Moscow that Budapest is the best friend of the Kremlin within the European bloc.

Some believe the whole situation has been created as a sign of solidarity with Turkey. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is now aiming to cultivate close ties with Erdogan. However, the Saga is toward the end, despite delays.

Its end will result with NATO expansion. / REL

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