Four possible scenarios for new conflict between Kosovo, Serbia

Experts of civil society, institutes and analysts from both Kosovo and Serbia have gathered from the German Friedrich-Ebert Foundation to draw up possible scenarios of conflict developments by 2035.

Nearly a decade after Kosovo's declaration of independence, seven years after the start of dialogue with EU mediation and five years from the Brussels agreement aimed at opening a new chapter in Kosovo-Serbia relations, the conflict remains frozen. Serbia does not recognise Kosovo's independence, though a majority of UN nations have recognised the new state, Russia standing in Serbia's side at any time could block with veto in the Security Council, Kosovo's UN membership.

Four scenarios. How will development be until 2035?

The dialogue launched in Brussels has eliminated some problems that weighed down daily people's lives and dissolved Serb structures in northern Kosovo, such as courts and police, to a certain extent. But the main obstacle remains the insurmountable difference in territory status of 2 million people, mostly Albanians. The international factor has stepped up pressure on Pristina and Belgrade to determine their relations in a broad normalisation agreement.

Representatives groups from civil society, institutes and academic worlds such as Kosovo, Serbia, along with EU experts, have gathered from the German foundation, Friedrich Ebert-Stiftung to draw up four possible scenarios of developing relations between Kosovo and Serbia by 2035. They will be introduced Friday (13.04) in Belgrade, but Deutsche Welle brings exclusively some parts of this document.

The Fastest Road to Progress

“The best scenario would be the one to finally resolve the status dispute”, says one of the participants in this project of the German foundation, Rescue Gashi from the “Cuncil Institute for the Governor”. The scenario of the Green “” implies reaching a broad normalisation agreement between Serbia and Kosovo in 2019. Thus Serbia becomes an EU member in 2025, Kosovo receives visa liberalisation in 2019, becomes a member of all international organisations and expects to join the EU in 2037, and Serbia supports its membership.

According to this scenario, both Kosovo and Serbia have economic improvements. However, to reach this point, Kosovo and Serbia must make some key decisions. Belgrade must give up the territorial claim on Kosovo, and Kosovo should establish the Association of Serbian municipalities with certain executive powers. A package of financial and political impulses are needed to encourage this process”, says expert Rescue Gashi for Deutsche Ellen.

According to Gashi, the most likely is a combination of second and third scenarios. These scenarios imply signatures of agreements, but that are not implemented. Pristina's authority on the entire territory of Kosovo is recognised by Belgrade in the agreement, but without full diplomatic recognition of Kosovo. At the same time, Belgrade continues to lobby against Kosovo's membership in international bodies.

Former enemies in power

The reason why this combination can be even the most likely scenario is because leadership both in Kosovo and Serbia does not have the will to give up populist rhetoric. Currently, both countries are governed by former enemies. Alekasander Vucic has been minister of information in Kosovo's wartime, while President Hashim Thaci was one of the KLA leaders.

“Vucic and Thaci have tried hard to introduce themselves as peacemakers, who are not. They've been trying to make us trust them. But they are the product of conflict and remain in power due to conflict. They create a conflict in the morning so they can solve that afternoon”, says expert Rescue Gashi. According to him, bold steps are required to resolve the conflict, but leadership is missing. Our leader does not have integrity, has a mixed past, and is not willing to leave behind an old legacy, Gashi tells the DE.

Bet for failure

With such politicians you may bet on failure, Gashi criticises. The outcome of the failure will make, despite some efforts, the two countries' economies deteriorate. “Conflict is a non-small factor contributing to economic problems, but I fear that both Kosovo and Serbia have gone too far to turn back. Kosovo is increasingly becoming a consumer society, which imports 90% of revenues, and exports only 10%, while Serbia with less than 2% economic growth ranks in 10 countries with the weaker global economy”, says Salvation Gashi.

In this analysis of experts and research institutes, the worst scenario would be the dissolution of the EU and its transition to a loose economic alliance, prompting the enlargement process with Western Balkan countries to freeze. In this case, the EU loses its influential leverage in Pristina and Belgrade. With the loss of membership prospects, both Pristina and Belgrade lose interest in negotiating and continue to blame each other. In such a case, there is no longer a strong opposition to nationalist legalisation, this would lead to increasing tensions in many areas where Serbs live in Kosovo, especially in its north, the worst scenario for developments is highlighted by 2035. With high tensions and weak voices demanding a resolution “a new war would be just a spark away from”. / DW/