Austria's turn right decuconion Balkan liberals

With so many issues on Europe's agenda, including the stalled Brex negotiations and another crisis in Catalonia, Austria has fallen silent from titles since the surprise outcome of the October 15th general elections.

As in Germany, coalition governments in Austria can take weeks or months to form, and Brussels will hope that the centre-right People's Party that won, the OVP, under new leader Sebastian Kurz will continue its coalition with the Social Democrats, SPO, which came out second.

If that happens, Commission President Jean Claude Juncker, not to mention Angela Merkel, will be released.

But it may not work that way, which in this case will be echoed by Brussels in the Balkans.

Kurz conservatives could join even the far-right Austrian Freedom Party party, FPO. In this case, a nationalist populist government will be in control in Vienna one that is more synchronised by Victor Orban's government in Hungary than with Brussels or Berlin.

“Visegrad Four” Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, united by their hostility to immigration, if not by many, will effectively become the five of Visegrad “”.

If that happens, Brussels' old policy that tries to ignore rather than placate noisy nationalists in the east will be difficult to maintain.

In more normal times, Austria's conservatives would not have once thought about joining a party founded by the former Nazis. But times are not normal, and Kurz has turned his party towards the right anti-migration, so much so that many have accused him of copying FPO politics.

If he did, it clearly did not hurt him in the elections. Neither did the FPO, which was closely third in the elections, damage after the SPD, with 26 percent of the vote. The extreme right in Germany can only dream of such a figure.

However, the Austrian right is triumphant, having received about 60 per cent of the vote between the two parties, which means there are only two possibilities -- a clean rightist OVP plus FPO -- or a government dominated by the OVP, but with SDP as a coalition partner.

Hungarian officials have not concealed the satisfaction of a prospect of having a government that thinks the same way in neighbouring Vienna. Orban cilibral was once an isolated figure in Europe. Now it is a kind of trend a Godfather of an expanding bloc whose arguments will be constantly difficult for France and Germany to dismiss.

If Austria joins this camp, let us forget every new EU plan to distribute migrants to every member state based on a group “solidarity”. Let us also forget every effort by the EU to present a united front to the invading Russia. Most of the New Orban-style folk in Europe admire the heart of the Kremlin.

The domino effect in the Balkans is difficult to calculate. “joliberals” have suffered a loss with the fall in May of Nikola Gruevski's regime in Macedonia, where flag waves and xenophobia failed to overturn voters' concerns. [It's interesting, Kurz once appeared at a Gruevski rally]

And not all Balkan states are affected by the music coming from Central Europe.

Many Muslim countries will clearly remain uninterested for Moscow and Budapest-style nationalism confused with Christianity. Albanians of Albania and Kosovo in each case are very dependent on the will of Brussels and Washington to be disturbed by the tectonic changes in Central European politics.

Finders in the Balkans, however, if Austria returns to the strong right its example could result in tempting. Even without its long-standing empire, Austria remains a player in the Balkans, more than Hungary. The simple fact of not being a liberal and moderate influence will have an impact on southern and eastern neighbours.

A recent article on CNN said the Austrian election result would be “retaker” for Europe.

It seems a little bit exaggerated. But it certainly is not insignificant. It is not encouraging at all for Balkan liberals as well. They're finding it increasingly difficult to face “iberals” as well.