13 minutes agoKupchan for the actions of the Government in the North: We have a situation where US, EU see Pristina as problem
Periskopi(2 years ago)
(2 years ago)Charles Kupchan, academic at the Council for International Relations, was invited this Saturday to the post office “Inside Albania” by journalist Alice Taylor. Kupchan conducted a deepening analysis of the security situation in the Western Balkans, while warning that there is a danger of escalation of ethnicly motivated violence in the region. “There is clearly a danger to violence [...]
Kupchan conducted a deepening analysis of the security situation in the Western Balkans, while warning that there is a danger of escalation of ethnicly motivated violence in the region.
There is clearly a danger to violence and it is evident from the fact that we have seen recent outbreaks of violence in northern Kosovo and in Banjska. The situation in Kosovo has not improved since the country declared independence and, in fact, we have seen a recent recession, due to some of the government's actions in Pristina, such as changing license plates, ID cards, placing mayors in northern municipalities, despite being selected from a very low percentage of the population. These are considered provocative actions by Serbs and Belgrade, and as a result, the very constructive proposal by the EU for normalisation of relations has stalled. We have heard reports of mobilizing the Serbian Army on the border with Kosovo, NATO is talking about permanent KFOR growth. We can conclude that isolated cases of violence can escalate,” clarified Kupchan.
Asked whether the actions of the Government of Kosovo are right, Kupchan explains that beyond legal and moral justification, Prime Minister Albin Kurti is not acting wisely in a political way.
There is no doubt that Pristina has the legal and moral right to love territory that is part of sovereign and independent Kosovo, and to unite the central government, to integrate them into a broader multi-ethnic society. If Kurti's steps are productive or not, this is another debate. I think the current government has taken some steps that have damaged Kosovo's position in the public opinion eye. At the time of NATO intervention that led to Kosovo's partition from Serbia, public opinion was on the side of Kosovo and Serbia, Vucic and those who came before him were seen as the problem. Now we have a situation where the US and EU see Pristina as a problem. It is taking actions that do not help the country when it comes to advancing towards the agreement the EU has put on the table. Even if what Kurt is doing is legally and morally justified, it is not politically wise”.
Kupchan also stopped from analyzing the major problem of arms trafficking in the Western Balkans as well as the risks stemming from weak countries that cannot control societies.
I think the situation in the Western Balkans, widely seen, is very problematic. There is mass trafficking of weapons, smuggling and human trafficking. In many ways, I think this problem is due to weak states. It comes because of governments that don't have the capacities with which we describe a modern state. So they don't have full control over society, are unable to use police forces, bureaucracy, ministries to establish control over the flow of weapons and people. In a way, the problem has to be addressed to build state capacities. This, in time, requires the Western Balkans to integrate into Europe. Therefore, when it comes to Kosovo and Serbia, Republika Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina, these problems cannot be left to escalate. This is because they are not only a danger to ethnic violence, but because they make governments difficult to build state capacities and create functional institutions that are needed to control the illegal flow of weapons and people”.
However, for the American expert, there is no doubt that the future of the Western Balkans lies in Euro-Atlantic institutions, such as natural orientation of the region.
“In the Biden administration, there are many individuals of Atlanticistic nature, including President Biden, who has been engaged for a long time in the Balkans. I think there's a new commitment in Europe too. The region has suffered from neglect coming from Washington and the EU, but now I see they are trying to correct this mistake. I am optimistic, I believe the region will be fully integrated into Euro-Atlantic institutions. It's a matter of time, not if it's going to happen”
Whether Russia has influence in the region or not through Serbia as its satellite, the Kupchan expert suggests that the Kremlin is losing ground in the Western Balkans, despite interference.
The former “Russians have long tried to stop the integration of the Western Balkans into Europe and the Atlantic institutions. Whether the name issue between Northern Macedonia and Greece, Montenegro's NATO membership, Bosnia and Herzegovina's sustainability, intelligence operations in Serbia, Serbia's relations with Kosovo, wherever you can find evidence of Russia's involvement. I think in this trajectory, Russia is losing ground. That in part because some of the divisions Russia has sought to exploit have been exceeded. The Russians failed to block Montenegro's NATO membership. They failed to prevent Greece and Northern Macedonia from reaching a solution to the name issue. Gradually, Russian influence is weakening, and I believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerates this too. Even a country like Serbia, which does not support Ukraine or line up with the West for imposing sanctions, is able to see the same view, that Russia has undertaken a bold aggression against its neighbours. From many perspectives, I believe we are witnessing Russia's latest efforts to prevent the integration of the Western Balkans”.
For journalist Alice Taylor, Kupchan showed in which areas Russia can try to extend its influence, after the Western Balkans.
I think the answer is in Caucasus and Central Asia. They will try to influence Syria and Africa through the Wagner group. But because of the distance, because of the position of the Western Balkans, I don't think you will have much energy and attention for this part of Europe, so that the Russians continue to play the prodigal. It will end up dealing with countries closer to it, especially in the Caucasus and Central Asia, because it is easier to intervene in the Western Balkans than in the Western Balkans,” concluded Kupchan.
