Scepticism for a Kosovo deal Serbia within 2019

Kosovo and Serbian authorities continue to declare their will for dialogue between the two countries, as a process that would enable the achievement of a comprehensive agreement, but the extreme positions of the parties and developments in the political scenes of the two countries strengthen the dilemmas if an eventual agreement can be reached by 2019, the connoisseurs of political developments -- in Kosovo and Serbia.

Currently, according to them, many European Union and United States officials estimate this year as an appropriate moment and as a chance for reaching a Kosovo agreement Serbia, but they have different views regarding the likelihood of this happening.

Politologist Ramush Tahiri tells Radio Free Europe that the precondition for reaching a comprehensive agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is dialogue, which has currently been imposed, due to the Kosovo government's 100 per cent tax deployment for Serbia's products. He is very sceptical about the possibility of this move being suspended for the time being by the Kosovo government. But, according to him, if such a thing happens, the way for dialogue and the possibility of an agreement between the parties is opened.

The European Union and the United States of America have indicated that they continue dialogue immediately once the tax is suspended. Then there is the possibility that this year, given the consistency of the forces or circumstances that are in Serbia and Kosovo, a deal will be reached, even because it is likely that these flows will be stabilised and overcome, and the agreement acceptable to both sides” was reached, Tahiri stressed.

But, otherwise, Dusan Janjic, director of the Forum for Ethnic Relations in Belgrade, thinks. Speaking to Radio Free Europe, he stresses that there are currently three narrations regarding the possibilities of reaching a comprehensive agreement between Kosovo and Serbia.

The first nation, according to him, comes from European bureaucracy and diplomacy, as well as from the US State Department, which suggests an agreement is possible and it requires about three months of work, to be completed within this year.

Second, as Janjiq says, negotiators from Kosovo, as soon as they return from Bucharest, say that an agreement can be reached, but that in practice, it behaves completely differently and through tax on Serbian goods and other forms, in fact they are strengthening their position for another time and other circumstances, avoiding possible elections from which they are afraid.

Meanwhile, Janzic says Serbia has a completely different disk on the European Union, which he tells it is ready for dialogue but makes no preparations for it, while the political scene in Serbia is complicated regardless of the Kosovo issue. In view of these promises, according to him, diplomacy, which has determined the term “by the end of the year” for an eventual agreement, has made a huge mistake.

“I suppose they have calculated to powerful leaders, but such leaders in Kosovo and in Serbia do not. Therefore, I do not believe that an agreement can be reached only between leaders. It is possible to sign any statements, but it cannot be implemented. I think it is wiser than to speculate about the date, to think about how to avoid danger in these three months, this confrontation between Pristina and Belgrade officials, not to rise in confrontation between people”, Janjiq stressed.

Politologist Tahiri expresses the view that the current riots on the political scene in Serbia, which are now being conveyed with demonstrations there, but also disagreements between the ruling coalition partners in Kosovo, should be seen as a boost by the authorities of the two countries, to approach dialogue and reach an agreement within the year.

The “do not develop as obstacles, but as a boost to reaching the agreement this year, because whatever government makes the agreement, it earns a lot in domestic power and earns much in international reports”, Tahiri stressed.

But, Janzic, suggests that reaching an agreement by the end of this year would be more likely if international factors were to implement more flexible policy on the ground and early elections in both countries viewed as exiting situations in Serbia and Kosovo.

In this case, if someone carefully analysed the situation, he would allow (Serbia's president, Aleksandar) Vuciqi to go to the elections, without all the abuses he is doing in Serbia, and still talk to him. Now we have the matter of what happens to this government. You believe that Kosovo can only be exploited at this moment, as Milosevic had done with Croatia. So, for (Serbia's) internal problems to be carried to Kosovo, in northern Kosovo and in Sandzak, to have localised conflicts of people and armed formations and to enter a drama that could last 10 years”, Janjiq stressed.

However, Serbia's authorities have refused to return dialogue with Kosovo without taxing its goods.

The Kosovo government insists on its decision, despite continued demands by the European Union and the United States of America that the tax be suspended.

The United States of America expects Kosovo and Serbia to reach the comprehensive agreement within 2019, which will end with mutual recognition.