Dempsey raises the alarm: Western Balkans can easily be influenced by China or Russia

Albania and the MV face the risk of increasing nationalism and destroying economic reforms after the European Union closed their long-standing hopes, leaders of both countries have warned, today Valerie Hopkins of the renowned British newspaper” The Financial Times”.

”Zoran Zaev, prime minister of northern Macedonia, stated in an interview that he feared a return to his country's ill past, ethnically divided, including an avoided civil war in 2001.

Edi Rama, Albania's prime minister, said in a separate interview that his country risks becoming collateral damage from the EU's division over enlargement.

Warnings by the two Balkan leaders stress analysts' fears that the two countries' refusal to open membership negotiations will destabilise a region, geopolitically delicately, where the influence of other countries, including Russia and China, is growing.

French President Emmanuel Macron blocked the opening of accession talks with northern Macedonia and Albania. The two countries have complained that the EU is not fulfilling its side of the implied agreement, as both Tirana and Skopje acted in an effort to meet Brussels' requirements. The Netherlands and Denmark were also against talks with Albania.

Zaev voiced concern that the deal with Greece, signed last year to reappointed his country, could be re-opened again amid the revival of nationalist sentiment. The name change was an important step on the road to EU membership, but was controversial in both countries, and Zaev warned that further implementation of the agreement reached with Athens is at stake.

“A part of the process is irreversible, but I worry there may be a return to the bad past that we have had”, he said, citing the multiethnic nature of his country, divided between the Macedonian majority and ethnic Albanians.

If there is enough nationalist rhetoric, radical actions and speeches in northern Macedonia, this will give Greek politicians arguments to use the same kind of rhetoric. This could bring about concrete steps by all, which would not benefit the region or my country”, Zaev said.

Zaev has already declared that he will resign, leading the country to early elections next year, following the EU's refusal. He has said that the name agreement with Greece, known as the Prespa Agreement, could be at risk if his party does not win.

Rama said in Tirana that the decision not to open accession negotiations has been a serious psychological shock in the country and has damaged the union's credibility in the region.

We are twice brutally separated from Europe, the first time, for five centuries under the rule of the Ottoman Empire and then for half a century under the brutal communist regime. No one can live with the idea that there might be a third time and that this time it could be Europe that brutally separates us from itself”, he said.

Rama and Zaev said they understood the concerns of EU member states, that they had blocked negotiations because they want to pursue reforms in the union and its enlargement policies.

But the two agreed that a potential membership would be at least a decade away, and that their countries and the EU itself could already continue their reforms.

Rama stated that the need for an internal EU reform, in fact, was not a continuous alibi for what might be considered a key matter”.

“Europe is found at a time when it can get worse before it gets better and we're just collateral damage of this”, Rama said.

Judy Dempsey, an important non-resident participant in Carnegie Europe with headquarters in Berlin, stated that the EU's credibility was damaged because leaders were told that, in 2003, if they met EU criteria, they would be accepted, and now that at least Skopje had done so, the country was rejected with the reason that the EU as the beginning should be reformed.

The “promises were not kept. Now the Western Balkans can easily be influenced by China or Russia”, she said.

Zaev has expressed concern over efforts to fill the gap.

This decision gives space to the third forces, which are not very useful, not offering us democracy, freedom and rule of law”, Zaev said.