4 hours agoSOROS detailed report on Kosovo losses from dialogue
Periskopi(8 years ago)
(8 years ago)Six Serbian experts have drafted a report envisioning two options for relations between Serbia and Kosovo; the first normalisation of relations between the two countries, including the exchange of territories, as well as the second normalisation option of relations, should not be between the two countries. The first option, which is normalizing relations [...]
The first option, which is normalising relations between the two countries, is predicted by experts to happen with the exchange of territory. According to this report Kosovo can take over the Presevo municipality without Bujanoc and without Medvedja, while the four northern municipalities; Leposaviqi, Zvecani, Zubin Potoku and Northern Mitrovica) would join Serbia, writes Insander.
“normalization scenario of relations between Belgrade and Pristina (and contain two scenarios: The scenario of the alleged exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo and the scenario of not predicting the exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo, for example. Implementation of the Brussels Agreement (2013). Status Quo scenario, which means no normalisation agreement” is reached, the report says.
The report, published by six experts, Miladin Kovacevic, Dusan Gavrliovic, Dragan Popovic, Milena B. Stevovic, Ljiljana Sekulic and Katarina Stanciq are talking about the benefits Serbia will have.
The four northern municipalities, according to the report, have over 42 thousand inhabitants, with Zvecan with 10974 residents -- Zubin Potoku 6079 inhabitants, Northern Mitrovica 11963 and Leposaviqi 13005. According to Serbian authors, Kosovo's four northern municipalities have about 40% more inhabitants than the Presevo municipality and have 1,000 square kilometers more land surfaces.
“The scenario of normalising relations, in both options the alleged exchange of territories or not, but ensuring implementation of the Brussels Agreement (2013) ♫ would ensure fewer demographic and economic losses than the scenario of not resolving relations, as well as negative trends in terms of natural growth and reduction of labour resources: negative trends in terms of natural growth and reduced labour resources would be doubly smaller and the disincentive intensified disarrays of the <18x0>
When it comes to economic effects, the territory change scenario -- of four northern municipalities with Presevo respectively -- represents an annual profit of 90m euros to Serbia. If this is taken in a longer-term perspective, for 30 years respectively, it would present a 2.7 billion-euro profit to the Serbian side.
Kosovo's new “communities, which would be new integrated into the Serbian economic system, would contribute to the growth of GDP to many of the 90m euros per year, which in the 30-year perspective would be 2.7 billion euros of potential profits (not counting other positive external effects that could result from normalisation of European relations and integration). Even if it is not possible to implement the exchange of territories, the assumption of full implementation of the Brussels Agreement (2013), when direct impact on GDP would not be expected, the positive effects of indirect normalisation of economic, social, political and demographics -- would be beyond comparison as more useful than in the case of the Status Quo” scenario, the report said.
On the other hand, experts consider the other option of cystatus Quosʹ with long-term negative effects on Serbia. In the first instance, negative effect for Serbia on the political side, but also on demographicity.
According to this report, unless agreement is reached on normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia, the population would be reduced by 44 percent by 2060.
“The scenario Status Quo would result in long-term negative effects: in the first place, in the improvement of the political solution, the expected demographic softness is quite pessimistic and without perspective: the population's overall population would be reduced by 44 percent by 2060, with extraordinary reductions in the working age population and changing the age structure in favour of the elderly population. Expressed in GDP terms, potential revenues to newly integrated territories would be forgotten, however, the Serbian Office for Kosovo's spending would remain further, estimated around 1.4 billion euros in the 30-year period”, the second option of six Serbian experts reported.
The final phase of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is now described as serious by Kosovo President Hashim Thaci. In the final phase of the dialogue, Thaci has warned several times the correction of borders between Kosovo and Serbia.
On the other hand, the opposition in the country does not recognise Thaci as Kosovo hugs. The VV says Thaci can harm Kosovo for his individual purposes, including his “fears from the Special Court.
